第一篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估理論
第1 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估概述·························································.002
1.1 戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃視野下的體系貢獻(xiàn)率問題背景···································.002
1.1.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率：使命組織發(fā)展的核心價值觀························.002
1.1.2 面向戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃研究的體系貢獻(xiàn)率問題分析························.004
1.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的概念特性························································.008
1.2.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的概念內(nèi)涵················································.008
1.2.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的基本特性················································.011
1.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估的研究框架··················································.012
1.3.1 問題域研究框架·························································.012
1.3.2 技術(shù)域研究框架·························································.014
1.3.3 總體研究框架····························································.014
1.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估的研究進(jìn)展··················································.015
1.4.1 國內(nèi)研究進(jìn)展綜述······················································.015
1.4.2 國外研究進(jìn)展綜述······················································.023
1.4.3 研究進(jìn)展小結(jié)····························································.026
1.4.4 重點研究方向····························································.027
第2 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估的基礎(chǔ)理論··············································.029
2.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)與復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)···························································.029
2.1.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)概念················································.029
2.1.2 復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)理論······················································.029
2.1.3 復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論····························································.030
2.1.4 超網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論·······························································.030
2.2 體系工程與能力機理···························································.031
2.2.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的能力基準(zhǔn)：基于能力的體系工程思想············.031
2.2.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的作用原理：體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)任務(wù)鏈路動量原理·········.035
2.2.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的成因機理：體系協(xié)同、適應(yīng)與層次涌現(xiàn)特性···.037
2.2.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的能力培育：作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型·········.040
2.3 體系能力與效能及特性評估··················································.040
2.3.1 體系能力評估····························································.041
2.3.2 體系效能評估····························································.048
2.3.3 體系特性評估····························································.050
2.4 體系仿真實驗與認(rèn)知演化計算···············································.052
2.4.1 體系仿真實驗····························································.052
2.4.2 認(rèn)知演化計算····························································.058
2.4.3 體系動力學(xué)仿真·························································.064
第3 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估的基準(zhǔn)流程··············································.065
3.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估需求分析·····················································.065
3.1.1 國家安全戰(zhàn)略需求分析················································.066
3.1.2 重要作戰(zhàn)方向分析······················································.067
3.1.3 體系使命能力分析······················································.068
3.1.4 作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)活動分析······················································.069
3.1.5 裝備功能要求分析······················································.070
3.1.6 裝備評估需求分析······················································.071
3.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方案設(shè)計·····················································.072
3.2.1 明確評估問題對象······················································.072
3.2.2 設(shè)置軍事作戰(zhàn)想定······················································.075
3.2.3 構(gòu)建評估指標(biāo)框架······················································.076
3.2.4 擬制總體評估方案······················································.077
3.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率全局能力評估·····················································.078
3.3.1 能力評估模型構(gòu)建······················································.079
3.3.2 多源數(shù)據(jù)獲取融合······················································.080
3.3.3 能力評估模型解算······················································.081
3.3.4 能力貢獻(xiàn)結(jié)果計算······················································.081
3.3.5 能力評估結(jié)果分析······················································.082
3.4 體系貢獻(xiàn)率重點效能評估·····················································.083
3.4.1 效能評估方案制定······················································.084
3.4.2 效能仿真想定設(shè)置······················································.084
3.4.3 效能仿真實驗設(shè)計······················································.085
3.4.4 仿真模型開發(fā)集成······················································.085
3.4.5 仿真實驗運行表現(xiàn)······················································.086
3.4.6 效能貢獻(xiàn)計算分析······················································.086
3.5 體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評估·····················································.087
3.5.1 效能-能力聚合評估····················································.088
3.5.2 能力-效能迭代評估····················································.088
3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089
3.5.4 綜合貢獻(xiàn)評估解算······················································.090
3.6 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估結(jié)果分析·····················································.090
3.6.1 評估結(jié)果機理分析······················································.091
3.6.2 評估結(jié)果多維展現(xiàn)······················································.091
3.6.3 評估結(jié)果決策支持······················································.092
第4 章 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估指標(biāo)框架··················································.094
4.1 基于體系能力的指標(biāo)框架·····················································.094
4.1.1 支持貢獻(xiàn)率評估的體系能力模型····································.094
4.1.2 面向全域關(guān)鍵能力的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估指標(biāo)框架··················.096
4.1.3 基于功能-能力聚合的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估指標(biāo)框架·················.098
4.1.4 基于改進(jìn)結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型的體系作戰(zhàn)能力評估指標(biāo)框架·········.099
4.2 基于體系效能的指標(biāo)框架·····················································.102
4.2.1 籃球賽高階綜合評估指標(biāo)借鑒·······································.102
4.2.2 基于目標(biāo)任務(wù)鏈路效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.104
4.2.3 基于使命任務(wù)活動效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.105
4.2.4 基于體系對抗場景效能的指標(biāo)框架·································.107
4.3 基于能力生成機理的指標(biāo)框架···············································.109
4.3.1 緊扣體系能力生成機理，以適應(yīng)度、影響度和重要度為核心··.110
4.3.2 能力與效能指標(biāo)相結(jié)合，基于效能進(jìn)行能力評估與驗證······.111
4.3.3 靜態(tài)戰(zhàn)術(shù)技術(shù)指標(biāo)與動態(tài)使命任務(wù)指標(biāo)綜合·····················.112
4.3.4 基于整體論思想探索體系整體性指標(biāo)······························.112
4.3.5 綜合考慮成本效益等方面的因素，構(gòu)建全面的指標(biāo)框架······.114
4.3.6 根據(jù)裝備種類、問題層次和發(fā)展階段有針對性地建立具體的
綜合性指標(biāo)框架·························································.114
第二篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法
第5 章 典型裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法····································.116
5.1 基于能力的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法············································.116
5.1.1 基于作戰(zhàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法······························.116
5.1.2 基于結(jié)構(gòu)的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法····································.119
5.1.3 基于RIMER 的能力貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法·······························.121
5.1.4 基于架構(gòu)與矩陣范數(shù)的多維度能力貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法············.122
5.2 基于效能的體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法············································.128
5.2.1 基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法···························.128
5.2.2 基于作戰(zhàn)環(huán)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法·································.130
5.2.3 基于深度置信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法························.133
5.2.4 基于價值中心法的效能貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法···························.136
5.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率綜合評估方法·····················································.137
5.3.1 基于AHP 的定性-定量綜合評估方法······························.137
5.3.2 基于SEM 的能力-效能綜合評估方法······························.141
5.3.3 基于MMF-OODA 的結(jié)構(gòu)-行為綜合評估方法····················.144
5.3.4 多類型體系貢獻(xiàn)率綜合評估方法····································.145
第6 章 基于OODA 的體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評估方法·····················.149
6.1 能效綜合評估方法的原理·····················································.149
6.2 能效綜合評估方法的實施步驟···············································.150
6.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估模型框架·····················································.152
6.4 評估方法的關(guān)鍵支撐技術(shù)·····················································.153
6.4.1 基于OODA 功能回路的體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模與分析····················.153
6.4.2 基于效能仿真數(shù)據(jù)的OODA 功能回路分析·······················.159
6.4.3 基于認(rèn)知計算的能力-效能綜合評估·······························.168
6.5 案例研究··········································································.169
第7 章 面向使命任務(wù)的體系貢獻(xiàn)率能效綜合評估方法···················.175
7.1 面向使命任務(wù)的能效綜合評估方法框架···································.175
7.1.1 評估問題的輸入與輸出················································.175
7.1.2 體系貢獻(xiàn)率的評估過程················································.176
7.1.3 能效綜合分析與評估框架·············································.180
7.2 基于定量HOQ 的指標(biāo)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系分析·······································.181
7.2.1 HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)建························································.181
7.2.2 基于仿真實驗的QFD 矩陣構(gòu)建過程································.184
7.3 基于組合賦權(quán)TOPSIS 的體系集成方案對比······························.186
7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186
7.3.2 使命任務(wù)需求滿足度評估·············································.186
7.3.3 體系貢獻(xiàn)率計算·························································.188
7.4 案例研究··········································································.188
7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188
7.4.2 實驗結(jié)果及評定·························································.190
7.4.3 結(jié)果分析··································································.193
第8 章 面向規(guī)劃計劃的項目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法··························.194
8.1 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法····················.194
8.1.1 問題背景分析····························································.194
8.1.2 評估方法的總體框架···················································.199
8.1.3 實施步驟··································································.200
8.2 基于聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程的項目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法····················.205
8.2.1 聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程概述················································.205
8.2.2 實施步驟··································································.207
8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210
第三篇 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估應(yīng)用
第9 章 裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估應(yīng)用案例····································.216
9.1 體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估方法頂層應(yīng)用流程·········································.216
9.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率的宏觀論證·········································.217
9.2.1 基于QFD 的巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率需求分析····················.218
9.2.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)需求分析中HOQ 的構(gòu)造過程·························.221
9.2.3 “國家安全戰(zhàn)略需求—重要作戰(zhàn)方向”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·······.229
9.2.4 “重要作戰(zhàn)方向—體系使命能力”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.230
9.2.5 “體系使命能力—作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.232
9.2.6 “作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單—裝備功能需求”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.234
9.2.7 基于能力需求滿足度的體系貢獻(xiàn)率宏觀論證分析···············.236
9.3 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻(xiàn)率的型號裝備論證···································.237
9.3.1 基于CCI-CTI 的仿真想定設(shè)置分析·································.237
9.3.2 仿真想定設(shè)定····························································.238
9.3.3 仿真應(yīng)用開發(fā)····························································.239
9.3.4 仿真實驗設(shè)計····························································.241
9.3.5 效能貢獻(xiàn)率評估分析···················································.243
第10 章 裝備項目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估應(yīng)用案例··································.246
10.1 智能化無人作戰(zhàn)力量體系建設(shè)需求········································.246
10.1.1 無人裝備建設(shè)與發(fā)展趨勢···········································.246
10.1.2 基于“馬賽克戰(zhàn)”的無人作戰(zhàn)力量規(guī)劃計劃與體系籌劃設(shè)計·······.250
10.2 “馬賽克戰(zhàn)”作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型的構(gòu)建·······················.257
10.3 項目與作戰(zhàn)體系能力關(guān)聯(lián)建�！ぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁぁ�.258
10.4 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻(xiàn)率評估·························.265
參考文獻(xiàn)························································································.267