氣候變化健康風(fēng)險評估方法及應(yīng)用
氣候變化與健康日益成為國內(nèi)外關(guān)注的熱門話題。應(yīng)對氣候變化健康風(fēng)險成為公共衛(wèi)生領(lǐng)域面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)與發(fā)展機(jī)遇，而開展氣候變化健康風(fēng)險評估是進(jìn)行有效應(yīng)對的基礎(chǔ)。目前國內(nèi)外已廣泛開展氣候變化對人類健康的影響研究，并形成了一套科學(xué)的理論和方法體系。本書將系統(tǒng)總結(jié)氣候變化與健康研究領(lǐng)域前沿且成熟的方法，并依托具體的案例詳細(xì)介紹各個方法的實(shí)際應(yīng)用，以指導(dǎo)國內(nèi)研究人員開展氣候變化健康領(lǐng)域的科學(xué)研究。
本書由13個章節(jié)組成，內(nèi)容主要包括：氣候變化與健康領(lǐng)域常用分析方法理論以及實(shí)際應(yīng)用，包括了基于時間序列數(shù)據(jù)的關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法、空間分析方法、氣候變化影響人群健康的脆弱性評估以及未來氣候變化對人群健康影響的預(yù)估方法等。
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主持國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計劃、全球變化亞太研究網(wǎng)絡(luò)等20多個科研基金項目（總科研經(jīng)費(fèi)超過2000萬元）
目 錄
第 1 章 緒論 ····················································································· 1
1.1 引言 ···················································································· 1
1.1.1 天氣、氣候、氣候變化與極端事件 ······················································ 1
1.1.2 溫室氣體排放情景 ··········································································· 2
1.2 氣候變化基本事實(shí) ·································································· 2
1.2.1 全球氣候變化現(xiàn)狀 ··········································································· 2
1.2.2 中國氣候變化現(xiàn)狀 ··········································································· 3
1.3 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險 ·································································· 4
1.3.1 氣候變化影響人群健康的機(jī)制路徑 ······················································ 4
1.3.2 氣候變化對全球人群健康的影響 ························································· 4
1.3.3 氣候變化對我國人群健康的影響 ························································· 6
1.4 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險評估方法 ······················································ 8
1.4.1 研究設(shè)計 ······················································································· 8
1.4.2 暴露評估 ····················································································· 10
1.4.3 暴露-反應(yīng)關(guān)系評價 ········································································ 11
1.4.4 歸因風(fēng)險評價 ··············································································· 12
1.4.5 脆弱性評估 ·················································································· 13
1.4.6 基于氣候變化情景的未來風(fēng)險預(yù)估 ···················································· 13
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 14
第 2 章 時間序列分析方法 ·································································· 16
2.1 引言 ··················································································· 16
2.1.1 用于預(yù)測的時間序列分析 ································································ 16
2.1.2 用于關(guān)聯(lián)性研究的時間序列分析 ······················································· 17
2.2 時間序列分析常用數(shù)據(jù)資源 ····················································· 19
2.2.1 數(shù)據(jù)資源類型及獲取途徑 ································································ 19
2.2.2 數(shù)據(jù)處理 ····················································································· 20
2.3 常用分析方法和研究設(shè)計 ························································ 20
2.3.1 分布滯后非線性模型 ······································································ 20
2.3.2 斷點(diǎn)時間序列 ··············································································· 21
·ii· 氣候變化健康風(fēng)險評估方法與應(yīng)用
2.3.3 雙重差分方法 ··············································································· 22
2.3.4 時間分層的病例交叉研究 ································································ 23
2.3.5 單純病例研究 ··············································································· 23
2.4 小結(jié) ··················································································· 24
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 24
第 3 章 地理信息分析方法 ·································································· 27
3.1 引言 ··················································································· 27
3.2 地理信息分析方法與健康研究進(jìn)展概述 ······································ 27
3.2.1 地理信息系統(tǒng)與健康研究 ································································ 28
3.2.2 遙感與健康研究 ············································································ 30
3.2.3 空間和時空分析與健康研究 ····························································· 32
3.3 暴露評價方法 ······································································· 45
3.4 高風(fēng)險聚集區(qū)識別 ································································· 47
3.5 空間異質(zhì)性與驅(qū)動因子識別 ····················································· 48
3.6 小結(jié) ··················································································· 49
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 50
第 4 章 基于 DLNM 方法分析氣溫對多地區(qū)人群死亡的影響 ······················ 53
4.1 引言 ··················································································· 53
4.2 方法學(xué)現(xiàn)狀與進(jìn)展 ································································· 54
4.3 基于多地區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)評估全國氣溫與死亡的非線性關(guān)系研究 ················· 56
4.3.1 案例簡介 ····················································································· 56
4.3.2 數(shù)據(jù)收集 ····················································································· 56
4.3.3 描述性分析 ·················································································· 58
4.3.4 確定基本模型和參數(shù) ······································································ 59
4.3.5 基于 DLNM 的二階段分析方法 ························································· 60
4.4 小結(jié) ··················································································· 63
參考文獻(xiàn) ···················································································· 64
第 5 章 基于廣義相加模型分析極端天氣事件對人群發(fā)病的影響 ·················· 66
5.1 引言 ·················
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