基于A(yíng)gent的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真研究
定 價(jià):79 元
- 作者:?jiǎn)探?/span>
- 出版時(shí)間:2022/3/1
- ISBN:9787121430800
- 出 版 社:電子工業(yè)出版社
- 中圖法分類(lèi):F224.0
- 頁(yè)碼:180
- 紙張:
- 版次:01
- 開(kāi)本:16開(kāi)
同類(lèi)多產(chǎn)品并存擴(kuò)散是一種很普遍的市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)象,如智能手機(jī)、平板電腦、新能源汽車(chē)等。因此,掌握多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散規(guī)律不僅對(duì)于企業(yè)制定研發(fā)計(jì)劃和營(yíng)銷(xiāo)策略十分重要,對(duì)于消費(fèi)者選購(gòu)產(chǎn)品也很有參考價(jià)值。對(duì)多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型的研究有宏觀(guān)和微觀(guān)兩種建模方法;诤暧^(guān)建模方法的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型已經(jīng)有很多,但是這種模型存在一個(gè)很大的弊端,就是無(wú)法從微觀(guān)層面解釋宏觀(guān)擴(kuò)散結(jié)果,這嚴(yán)重限制了宏觀(guān)模型的應(yīng)用。另外,目前基于微觀(guān)建模方法的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型還非常少,品牌競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與代際替代并存的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型還未出現(xiàn),而且僅有的少數(shù)模型均未經(jīng)真實(shí)銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證,只適用于理論分析,應(yīng)用價(jià)值有限。基于上述情況,筆者用微觀(guān)建模與仿真方法系統(tǒng)研究了3種情形下的多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散問(wèn)題。
喬健,西北工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院副教授、碩士生導(dǎo)師。2006年12月于西安交通大學(xué)獲得管理學(xué)博士學(xué)位。2013年12月赴美國(guó)亞利桑那大學(xué)埃勒管理學(xué)院訪(fǎng)學(xué)1年。2015~2018年任信息管理系主任。兼任信息系統(tǒng)協(xié)會(huì)中國(guó)分會(huì)、陜西省應(yīng)急管理學(xué)會(huì)和陜西省軟科學(xué)研究會(huì)理事。擔(dān)任European Journal of Operational Research、IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics、Fuzzy Sets and Systems、IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica、西安交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然版)、中國(guó)公路學(xué)報(bào)、長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版)、南京航空航天大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(英文版)、系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報(bào)等期刊的匿名審稿人。
第1章 緒論··········································································································1
1.1 研究背景及意義······················································································1
1.2 研究進(jìn)展·································································································3
1.2.1 多產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型··········································································4
1.2.2 線(xiàn)上口碑對(duì)擴(kuò)散過(guò)程的影響·······················································6
1.2.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)擴(kuò)散過(guò)程的影響·······················································8
1.2.4 研究進(jìn)展述評(píng)··············································································9
1.3 研究?jī)?nèi)容·······························································································10
1.3.1 消費(fèi)者決策分析········································································10
1.3.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真····································································11
1.3.3 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真································································12
1.3.4 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·························································12
1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12
1.4.1 消費(fèi)者決策分析········································································12
1.4.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真····································································13
1.4.3 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真································································13
1.4.4 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·························································14
1.5 主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新·······························································································14
1.6 本章小結(jié)·······························································································15
第2 章 相關(guān)理論與技術(shù)·····················································································16
2.1 效用理論·······························································································16
2.1.1 概述···························································································16
2.1.2 效用函數(shù)的由來(lái)········································································16
2.1.3 消費(fèi)者偏好················································································17
2.1.4 效用函數(shù)的類(lèi)型········································································18
2.1.5 邊際效用····················································································19
2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20
2.1.7 間接效用····················································································21
2.1.8 預(yù)算約束····················································································21
2.2 模糊集理論····························································································22
2.2.1 概述···························································································22
2.2.2 概念定義····················································································23
2.2.3 模糊邏輯····················································································25
2.3 網(wǎng)絡(luò)科學(xué)·······························································································28
2.3.1 概述···························································································28
2.3.2 網(wǎng)絡(luò)屬性····················································································29
2.3.3 網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型····················································································32
2.4 ABMS理論與技術(shù)················································································35
2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35
2.4.2 基于A(yíng)gent的模型····································································36
2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平臺(tái)···············································38
2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41
2.5 本章小結(jié)·······························································································44
第3章 消費(fèi)者決策分析·····················································································46
3.1 購(gòu)買(mǎi)決策分析························································································46
3.1.1 消費(fèi)者屬性················································································46
3.1.2 產(chǎn)品屬性····················································································49
3.1.3 社會(huì)環(huán)境····················································································53
3.2 評(píng)論決策分析························································································55
3.3 本章小結(jié)·······························································································55
第4章 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·················································································57
4.1 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)········································································57
4.1.1 多代產(chǎn)品子模型········································································57
4.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·································································58
4.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型········································································67
4.1.4 總體框架····················································································67
4.2 多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)········································································68
4.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證····················································································68
4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74
4.2.3 購(gòu)買(mǎi)者動(dòng)力學(xué)分析····································································86
4.2.4 延伸討論····················································································88
4.3 本章小結(jié)·······························································································88
第5章 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真·············································································90
5.1 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)····································································90
5.1.1 多品牌產(chǎn)品子模型····································································90
5.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·································································91
5.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型········································································96
5.1.4 總體框架····················································································97
5.2 多品牌產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)····································································97
5.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證····················································································98
5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101
5.2.3 購(gòu)買(mǎi)者動(dòng)力學(xué)分析··································································117
5.2.4 延伸討論··················································································122
5.3 本章小結(jié)·····························································································123
第6章 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真···································································125
6.1 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散模型設(shè)計(jì)···························································125
6.1.1 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品子模型··························································125
6.1.2 消費(fèi)者Agent子模型·······························································126
6.1.3 社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)子模型······································································131
6.1.4 總體框架··················································································132
6.2 多品牌多代產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)···························································136
6.2.1 模型驗(yàn)證··················································································136
6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141
6.2.3 購(gòu)買(mǎi)者動(dòng)力學(xué)分析··································································146
6.2.4 延伸討論··················································································150
6.3 本章小結(jié)·····························································································151
第7章 總結(jié)與展望··························································································153
7.1 總結(jié)·····································································································153
7.2 展望·····································································································155
參考文獻(xiàn)··············································································································157