第1章 緒論··········································································································1
1.1 研究背景及意義······················································································1
1.2 研究進展·································································································3
1.2.1 多產品擴散模型··········································································4
1.2.2 線上口碑對擴散過程的影響·······················································6
1.2.3 社交網絡對擴散過程的影響·······················································8
1.2.4 研究進展述評··············································································9
1.3 研究內容·······························································································10
1.3.1 消費者決策分析········································································10
1.3.2 多代產品擴散仿真····································································11
1.3.3 多品牌產品擴散仿真································································12
1.3.4 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真·························································12
1.4 研究思路及方法····················································································12
1.4.1 消費者決策分析········································································12
1.4.2 多代產品擴散仿真····································································13
1.4.3 多品牌產品擴散仿真································································13
1.4.4 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真·························································14
1.5 主要創(chuàng)新·······························································································14
1.6 本章小結·······························································································15
第2 章 相關理論與技術·····················································································16
2.1 效用理論·······························································································16
2.1.1 概述···························································································16
2.1.2 效用函數(shù)的由來········································································16
2.1.3 消費者偏好················································································17
2.1.4 效用函數(shù)的類型········································································18
2.1.5 邊際效用····················································································19
2.1.6 期望效用····················································································20
2.1.7 間接效用····················································································21
2.1.8 預算約束····················································································21
2.2 模糊集理論····························································································22
2.2.1 概述···························································································22
2.2.2 概念定義····················································································23
2.2.3 模糊邏輯····················································································25
2.3 網絡科學·······························································································28
2.3.1 概述···························································································28
2.3.2 網絡屬性····················································································29
2.3.3 網絡模型····················································································32
2.4 ABMS理論與技術················································································35
2.4.1 什么是Agent ·············································································35
2.4.2 基于Agent的模型····································································36
2.4.3 Repast Symphony建模仿真平臺···············································38
2.4.4 Mesa建模仿真框架···································································41
2.5 本章小結·······························································································44
第3章 消費者決策分析·····················································································46
3.1 購買決策分析························································································46
3.1.1 消費者屬性················································································46
3.1.2 產品屬性····················································································49
3.1.3 社會環(huán)境····················································································53
3.2 評論決策分析························································································55
3.3 本章小結·······························································································55
第4章 多代產品擴散仿真·················································································57
4.1 多代產品擴散模型設計········································································57
4.1.1 多代產品子模型········································································57
4.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·································································58
4.1.3 社交網絡子模型········································································67
4.1.4 總體框架····················································································67
4.2 多代產品擴散仿真實驗········································································68
4.2.1 模型驗證····················································································68
4.2.2 敏感性分析················································································74
4.2.3 購買者動力學分析····································································86
4.2.4 延伸討論····················································································88
4.3 本章小結·······························································································88
第5章 多品牌產品擴散仿真·············································································90
5.1 多品牌產品擴散模型設計····································································90
5.1.1 多品牌產品子模型····································································90
5.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·································································91
5.1.3 社交網絡子模型········································································96
5.1.4 總體框架····················································································97
5.2 多品牌產品擴散仿真實驗····································································97
5.2.1 模型驗證····················································································98
5.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································101
5.2.3 購買者動力學分析··································································117
5.2.4 延伸討論··················································································122
5.3 本章小結·····························································································123
第6章 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真···································································125
6.1 多品牌多代產品擴散模型設計···························································125
6.1.1 多品牌多代產品子模型··························································125
6.1.2 消費者Agent子模型·······························································126
6.1.3 社交網絡子模型······································································131
6.1.4 總體框架··················································································132
6.2 多品牌多代產品擴散仿真實驗···························································136
6.2.1 模型驗證··················································································136
6.2.2 敏感性分析··············································································141
6.2.3 購買者動力學分析··································································146
6.2.4 延伸討論··················································································150
6.3 本章小結·····························································································151
第7章 總結與展望··························································································153
7.1 總結·····································································································153
7.2 展望·····································································································155
參考文獻··············································································································157